Lower Atlantic Hurricane Numbers

In May, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasted a 75 percent chance that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, would be near or above normal. They planned to update the Atlantic seasonal in early August, just before the peak of the season. They have done so and it is good news.

The likelihood of a below normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 60 percent up from 25 percent in May. The likelihood of a near normal season is now at 30 percent, and the chance of an above normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent. For the entire season the Center is predicting a total of 9-13 storms of which 4-7 will become hurricanes.
The change in the outlook is attributed to a stronger El Nino with enough strength to suppress storm development. Also, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have remained much cooler than average.

Preparing ahead of a disaster is the responsibility of all levels of government, the private sector and the public,” said acting FEMA Deputy Administrator Daniel Kaniewski. “It only takes one storm to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare. Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have a communication and evacuation plan? Stay tuned to your local news and download the FEMA app to get alerts, and make sure you heed any warnings issued by local officials.”

Photo courtesy of NOAA

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